Navigating the Waves: US Urges India to Counterbalance China in Asian Waters

A diplomatic dance that could shape the geopolitical landscape, the United States is gearing up to press India to play a more significant role in countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This move, however, is not without its potential pitfalls, as it risks further straining the already delicate relations between New Delhi and Beijing.

According to Indian officials privy to the discussions, the US is urging India to share the burden in the Indo-Pacific by amplifying its diplomatic and military presence in the region. The request extends to a larger Indian Navy presence in the South and East China Seas, beyond the traditional Asian maritime choke-points.

Scheduled for a crucial meeting on November 10, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Saishankar will engage with their US counterparts, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The high-stakes talks will also involve a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

While the details of the discussions remain confidential, Arindam Bagchi, the spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs, emphasized the need to refrain from prejudging the outcome. The US Embassy in New Delhi has yet to respond to inquiries seeking comment.

The push for increased cooperation comes as the US strengthens alliances across Asia, aiming to counter what it perceives as China's growing assertiveness on both economic and military fronts. Amid this, the US also grapples with diplomatic and military support for Ukraine and Israel in their conflicts with Russia and Hamas, respectively.

India, under Prime Minister Modi, has moved closer to the US in recent years. The strategic courtship reflects Washington's hopes that India can emerge as a regional counterweight to China. However, India remains cautious, wary of being perceived as part of an informal alliance against China, particularly due to the ongoing border disputes along the Himalayan border.

The India-China border clash in 2020 marked the worst confrontation in four decades, resulting in casualties on both sides. The aftermath saw India discouraging investments from China and banning numerous Chinese mobile applications. Despite this, India treads carefully, avoiding overt alignment with the US against China.

As a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the US, Australia, and Japan, India emphasizes the economic and developmental aspects over the military dimension. The Quad has been revived as a strategic forum to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region.

India has strategically positioned warships at key choke points in the Indian Ocean, extending from the Gulf of Aden to the Lombok Strait in Indonesia. The Indian Navy has also sailed vessels through the contested South China Sea. However, the question remains whether the Indian Navy can shoulder the additional burden of a more consistent presence in areas where the US seeks assistance, considering their extensive annual patrols and the goal of maintaining dominance in the Indian Ocean amid China's naval advancements. The outcome of these discussions could significantly shape the dynamics of power in the Indo-Pacific region, making it a diplomatic tightrope for both India and the United States.